These days, air travel is super-safe. That wasn’t always the
case. In the seventies and eighties, either planes were getting hijacked by the Baader Meinhof Gang
or they were crashing on a semi-frequent basis.
case. In the seventies and eighties, either planes were getting hijacked by the Baader Meinhof Gang
or they were crashing on a semi-frequent basis.
No more. These days, “Security”
has sharpened up their act and you can’t even take a bottle of Evian on board.
And the safety regulations are super demanding. So now it’s a rare thing for a mainstream airline to crash – Air
France Flight 447 being the notable exception in 2009.
has sharpened up their act and you can’t even take a bottle of Evian on board.
And the safety regulations are super demanding. So now it’s a rare thing for a mainstream airline to crash – Air
France Flight 447 being the notable exception in 2009.
The same is not true everywhere. Some airlines still keep crashing
their planes. Don’t fly
Cubana Airlines anytime soon. It boasts an insane 1,077% above-average accident
rate.
their planes. Don’t fly
Cubana Airlines anytime soon. It boasts an insane 1,077% above-average accident
rate.
The “plane crash
algorithm” typically goes something like this:
1.
Pilot takes off and all is normal, early on;
Pilot takes off and all is normal, early on;
2.
Pilot encounters a malfunction – usually, an
event of a type that pilots are trained to deal with;
Pilot encounters a malfunction – usually, an
event of a type that pilots are trained to deal with;
3.
Pilot has 60 seconds to go through the emergency
drill and sort things out;
Pilot has 60 seconds to go through the emergency
drill and sort things out;
4.
Pilot spends 55 seconds not going through the
drill, and not sorting it out. He is only human, and, in the unforgiving minute,
he freezes up and can’t remember all the steps;
Pilot spends 55 seconds not going through the
drill, and not sorting it out. He is only human, and, in the unforgiving minute,
he freezes up and can’t remember all the steps;
5.
Time runs out.
Time runs out.
Now think of a defined benefit pension plan, any defined benefit pension plan. It is a type
of airliner being flown (as one might expect) by pilots. The question is, which
type of pilot?
Here are three pilot categories:
a.
The pilots are ex-Tornado fighter crew who have
spent hundreds of hours in a Thales
Full Flight Simulator, and are highly trained to deal with virtually any eventuality
that may arise during the flight;
The pilots are ex-Tornado fighter crew who have
spent hundreds of hours in a Thales
Full Flight Simulator, and are highly trained to deal with virtually any eventuality
that may arise during the flight;
b.
The pilots have done a few hours in a very old
simulator in downtown Havana, but not for a while. They haven’t flown this type
of aircraft for very long. They wouldn’t get past the door at Singapore
Airlines.
The pilots have done a few hours in a very old
simulator in downtown Havana, but not for a while. They haven’t flown this type
of aircraft for very long. They wouldn’t get past the door at Singapore
Airlines.
c.
The pilots have never been in a simulator of any
description. They have never heard of Thales and they have only flown light
aircraft. They are completely unqualified to fly this plane type. But they are very
enthusiastic and full of hope.
The pilots have never been in a simulator of any
description. They have never heard of Thales and they have only flown light
aircraft. They are completely unqualified to fly this plane type. But they are very
enthusiastic and full of hope.
Your pension fund’s pilots fall into one of the categories
above, and:
above, and:
1.
The weather at 38,000 feet is currently very
severe (high turbulence / lightning storms / strong headwinds / volcanic ash);
The weather at 38,000 feet is currently very
severe (high turbulence / lightning storms / strong headwinds / volcanic ash);
2.
Engine One has failed and the plane is slowly losing
height;
Engine One has failed and the plane is slowly losing
height;
3.
You are flying over the Himalayas.
You are flying over the Himalayas.
4.
Sixty seconds starts now!
Sixty seconds starts now!
The chance of your pension-fund-plane reaching its final destination
safely [read, “achieving full funding”]
and on time, is directly correlated with your pilots’ categorisation.
safely [read, “achieving full funding”]
and on time, is directly correlated with your pilots’ categorisation.
Worth finding out?
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